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Seasonal forecasting

Forecasts that learn your business.

stocura watches two years of demand, finds the seasonal pattern in each SKU, and projects the next three months. No spreadsheets, no manual smoothing.

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app.stocura.com/sku/OW-4412
Olwyn linen tote · natural
OW-4412 · 28-day lead
Reorder soon
On hand18
Run-rate4.2/d
Cover4d
Suggested142
today
How it works

From two years of orders to a three-month forecast.

01

Pull demand history

We import up to 24 months of order data from Shopify and Cin7. SKUs with less history fall back to category-level patterns.

02

Detect seasonality per SKU

Each SKU is fit independently — your candle business and your garden tools don’t share a season. We surface the pattern visually so you can sanity-check it.

03

Project & track pace

Three-month forecasts feed the Reorder Queue. Month-to-date pacing tells you when reality is diverging from the forecast — early.

What you get

Sharper signal, less spreadsheet.

Per-SKU seasonality

Not flat averages. Each SKU has its own season, surfaced as a 24-month chart you can read in three seconds.

Month-to-date pacing

Pacing percentage tells you how the month is tracking against forecast — so you can react before the month ends.

Backtested visibly

Toggle “show last year’s forecast vs actuals” to see how the model performed before trusting it forward.

Promotion-aware

Tag past promotions and we’ll exclude them from the baseline, so a Black Friday spike doesn’t become next year’s expectation.

New SKU fallback

Six weeks of data is enough to start. Newer SKUs borrow patterns from their product family while their own signal builds.

Manual overrides

Your judgement matters. Bump a forecast up or down per-SKU when you know something the model doesn’t.

How the forecasts work
A seasonality template at staging. Empirical-Bayes blend with your own data. Nightly self-correction.

Pick Christmas, Father's Day, Mother's Day, or Evergreen — your forecast starts with a prior, not a blank slate. As your own data accumulates, the template fades to zero by month 12. Every night, Stocura re-checks each SKU's actual pattern and auto-applies a corrected template if yours has drifted. Every adjustment is audit-logged.

Related features

Pairs well with

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